ALIs

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LINUX Cluster Project

POPECON - Seminar für Bevölkerungsökonomik (Prof. Sunde)


Institution

  • Name: Seminar für Bevölkerungsökonomie
  • Address: Schackstr. 4, 80539 München
  • Project Proposal Date: 2018-02-16 11:02:05

Abstract:

The Network Origins of Economic Growth In this project, we propose a new approach to represent a country's outward orientation. Prior work mostly uses indicators of aggregate trade intensity, trade policy or trade restrictiveness. Our approach offers a broader perspective as it measures a country's level of integration not only by its set of direct trade connections with the rest of the world but also through the full architecture of its second, third, and all other higher-order connections. We apply our methodology to a sample of 200 countries spanning the period from 1962 to 2012 and perform a MC^3 (Markov chain, Monte Carlo, model selection) Bayesian model-averaging analysis on the determinants of growth. We find a prominent positive effect of integration on a country's level of per capita income, while the aforementioned traditional measures of outward orientation display only a minor, largely insignificant, weight. This, we argue, highlights the network basis of economic growth and adds a novel perspective to the notion of economic openness. We also perform several sensitivity checks and conclude that our baseline findings are extremely robust to different data input and alternative assumptions about the computation of country integration.