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LINUX Cluster Project

ifo - Arbeitsmarkt- und Bevölkerungsökonomik


Institution

  • Name: Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insb. Sozialpolitik und Arbeitsmärkte
  • Address: Poschingerstraße 5, 81679 München
  • Project Proposal Date: 2018-03-09 14:34:32

Abstract:

This project is developing a quantitative framework to answer demographic questions regarding fertility, fertility timing and childlessness in response to labor market uncertainty. Understanding fertility behavior in response to economic conditions, and in particular economic uncertainty, is an important aspect of understanding demographic development. However, until now very little is known about how labor market uncertainty is reflected in fertility behavior along the intensive (number of children) as well as the extensive (childlessness) margin within one single framework. Therefore the project develops a theoretical model of fertility, childlessness and marriage formation and dissolution in response to labor market conditions and labor income uncertainty. The structural parameters of the model are estimated using simulated methods of moments in order to capture distinct patterns of fertility, marriage and childlessness for individuals with different education levels obtained from the German Microcensus. By building an economic model that studies the effects of economic uncertainty on multiple aspects of fertility behavior, this project contributes to scientific modeling and future policy analysis.